COAL FOSSIL FUEL

ARE WE RUNNING OUT?

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Are we running out of coal fossil fuel? If we are running out, how much is left and how long will it last?

When we looked at the answers to those questions for fossil fuel oil, we found that every answer generated debate and more questions. If we dig into the same questions for coal fossil fuel, we will find many of the same complexities.

Coal, much like crude oil, is defined as a fossil fuel. The term fossil is used in the description of these energy resources because most geologists believe that these fuels are of organic origin and, equally important, the natural processes that create these fuels occur over millennia, much like the processes that create fossils. So, for all practical purposes, they are finite, nonrenewable resources.

We will run out of coal. But when?

Estimates of global coal fossil fuel reserves vary widely. Some estimates suggest that we have enough proven coal reserves to last for several centuries, and more reserves continue to be found. Other figures indicate a much shorter lifespan for coal, especially when increasing consumption is factored in.

For our discussion we’ll continue using the information provided by the U.S. Department of Energy. The D.O.E. information is at least as reliable as any resource and easily accessed for all to see. And most important, the U.S. Government has vast research capabilities that are put to work compiling the information.

Coal is measured in short tons, which is a ton weighing 2,000 lbs. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, current, proven, readily usable coal fossil fuel reserves stand at about 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) short tons. ( D.O.E. Global Coal Reserves )D.O.E. global consumption for 2005 (by interpolation) was about 5,574,000,000 short tons; about 5.5 billion short tons. The data also projects annual increases in coal consumption of about 2% per year. ( D.O.E. Global Coal Consumption ) _________________________________________________________________

Here is the D.O.E. information shown graphically:

If you crunch those numbers directly with no assumption of future major coal discoveries, it looks like coal supplies will last for about 77 years. That is far less than the 300-year supply others have projected.

Projecting the life span of coal fossil fuel needs to include assumptions of future coal discoveries. It also needs to include expanded use of coal as a source for liquid based fuels such as diesel and gasoline. And, as was the case with oil projections, there are a number of other factors that need to be considered.

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One Wikipedia article ( Wikipedia - Coal ) quoted a scientist as projecting peak coal production in about 2046. The Wikipedia article points out that peak production in 2046 does not mean that coal will disappear soon after that. Total depletion of global coal fossil fuel resources could take another 200 years, or it could be more like 50 years.

The peak coal projection in Wikipedia used Hubbert Peak projection methods and was written by Gregson Vaux. It’s a well-written article and worthwhile read with a number of detailed graphs. The complete article can be found at: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/052504_coal_peak.html .

Most energy experts see continually increasing use of coal fossil fuel resources over the next ten to twenty years. Coal takes on added importance for those of us in North America because almost one-third of global coal reserves are right here.

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